Investment Minister Lord Jason Stockwood says the UK needs to believe in itself more.
Lord Stockwood stepped down from his day-to-day involvement as co-owner and vice-chair at Grimsby Town FC in September after succeeding Poppy Gustafsson as UK Investment Minister.
He was given a peerage, joining the House of Lords, in order to take up the role and is also an experienced leader in technology businesses, holding senior roles at lastminute.com, match.com, Skyscanner, Travelocity, and Simply 老九品茶.
Reflecting on his first few months in the role, the 55-year-old said Britain has spent much of the last decade talking itself down 鈥� and it needs to stop.
Poppy Gustafsson replaced as Investment Minister by Grimsby Town owner
鈥淭he dominant story is one of decline: weak growth, stagnant productivity, brittle public services and a politics that seems permanently stuck,鈥� he wrote.
鈥淪ome of that story is deserved. But not all of it. And when pessimism hardens into orthodoxy, it starts to shape outcomes.
鈥淭hat is one of the central arguments in 鈥楩ixing the holes in economics: better theories for better growth鈥�, a recent paper by David Halpern, which reminds us that economies do not move on fundamentals alone.
鈥淪entiment, trust and momentum matter. Markets respond not just to policy, but to how credible and confident the story around that policy feels.
鈥淭his matters for the UK because, relative to other advanced economies, the fundamentals are stronger than the mood music suggests.鈥�
Living standards
Lord Stockwood said real wages in the UK have risen by up to 3 per cent over the past year.
鈥淭hat may not yet feel transformative for many households, especially after such a prolonged squeeze, but it matters in direction if not in drama,鈥� he said.
鈥淪et alongside falling inflation, easing energy prices and the prospect of lower mortgage rates, it marks the beginning of a shift.
鈥淏ritain is ahead of several comparable economies where incomes remain flat. This is not an abstract statistic. Politics follows pay packets.
鈥淲hen people stop feeling poorer year-on-year, behaviour begins to change. Confidence returns slowly, but it does return.鈥�
The UK Investment Minister said Britain鈥檚 thriving service economy is often 鈥榤isunderstood鈥�.
鈥淭he UK is the world鈥檚 second largest exporter of services, selling more than 拢450bn a year across finance, professional services, technology, culture and education,鈥� he said.
鈥淚n a world driven increasingly by ideas, data and trust rather than containers and steel, this is a strategic advantage, not a weakness.鈥�
Inflation is falling
Lord Stockwood said inflation was tracking to two to three per cent in the next 12 months.
He said: 鈥淭hat matters because it restores room for manoeuvre and it allows interest rates to fall sooner, eases pressure on households and businesses, and helps move politics out of permanent crisis mode.
鈥淐ompared with economies where inflation remains stubbornly high, Britain now has options again.鈥�
He said London remains the world鈥檚 leading international financial centre, handling over 40 per cent of global foreign exchange trading.
鈥淭rust in institutions is not a nice-to-have; it shapes expectations and behaviour long before policy changes feed through,鈥� he said.
Lord Stockwood said countries such as Japan, South Korea and parts of southern Europe were already seeing their working age populations shrink.
鈥淭he UK is not,鈥� he said. 鈥淭hat does not guarantee prosperity, but it reduces one of the most powerful structural drags on growth that others now face.
鈥淣one of this is an argument for complacency. Britain still needs reform, investment and a clearer long-term strategy. But pessimism is not realism. It is a position, and often a lazy one.
鈥淭he lesson from behavioural economics, as Halpern argues, is that narratives shape decisions.
鈥溊暇牌凡鑕s delay investment when they fear the future. Households hold back spending when they believe decline is inevitable.
鈥淕overnments that talk their own economies down should not be surprised when confidence evaporates.
鈥淢omentum is not magic. But it is real. And relative to other markets, Britain has more of it than we currently allow ourselves to believe.鈥�